Breakout A: TU: Departure Defaults - Hidden Risk in a Mobile Canada

Recent years have seen an increase in delinquency rates among international students and temporary residents in Canada, raising important questions for lenders, risk teams, and policymakers. Emerging evidence suggests a subset of credit files may be associated with borrowers who accumulate balances and subsequently leave the country with significant outstanding debt—a pattern we refer to as Departure Defaults. While not representative of these populations as a whole, the trend presents meaningful implications for credit risk, identity verification, and portfolio exposure.

This session examines the evolving risk dynamics associated with non?permanent identities and newly established credit files. Drawing on TransUnion Canada unique fraud insights, we will explore observed declines in the proportion of recently created credit files that include an associated SIN, and what this may signal about changes in application behaviour, identity verification practices, or potential exploitation of gaps in the financial ecosystem. By distinguishing intent, identity quality, and behavioural signals, this session aims to help lenders better understand where true fraud risk exists—and where improved controls, monitoring, or segmentation may be required. Attendees will gain insights into how credit, fraud, and identity teams can collaborate to mitigate losses while continuing to responsibly serve globally mobile populations that play a vital role in Canada’s economy.